Solution to Nagorno-Karabakh conflict long-term process: Crisis Group

30 January 2009

Trend News Agency (Azerbaijan)

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Azerbaijan, Baku, Jan. 29 /Trend News [http://news.trend.az], E.Rustamov/ Trend News [http://news.trend.az] interview with Europe Programme Director at the International Crisis Group Sabine Freizer

Question: Can the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict be solved in 2009?

Answer: The key to the solution of the conflict lies with the leaders and peoples of Azerbaijan and Armenia. It is primarily Azeris and Armenians, including those from Nagorno-Karabakh, who need to find a mutually acceptable compromise solution. This solution should be achieved through peaceful negotiations and with due consideration to the rights and underlying interests of all major stakeholders in the conflict, so as to ensure a stable, sustainable and just peace.

The external players, be it OSCE Minsk Group or individual states, may only play a secondary role in shaping the dynamics of the conflict and helping the parties to come to peace. We cannot fully exclude the possibility of signing of a peace agreement in 2009. However, even if Armenia and Azerbaijan sign a peace agreement, it will take years for Azeris and Armenians to build trust and learn to peacefully coexist in Nagorno-Karabakh and elsewhere. So, solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is a long-term process.

We cannot exclude the possibility of a significant progress towards peace in 2009. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan continue talks using Minsk Group’s Madrid proposals as a framework. The August crisis in Georgia has increased the importance and urgency the international community attaches to the solution of the conflicts in the South Caucasus. The Moscow declaration signed in November by Armenian, Azerbaijani and Russian presidents, despite the fact that it was perceived as primarily a Russian attempt to improve its international image after Georgia war, was an important development in a sense that it was the first signed document between Armenia and Azerbaijan ever since 1994 cease-fire and called for a political resolution of the conflict.

Turkey is also stepping up its regional efforts in the Caucasus and the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations would have a positive impact to the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. So, given all these recent developments, there are some grounds for cautious optimism. However, as I said, the solution to such complex problems as Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is a long-term process and it will take at least a decade, if not more, before the conflict can be fully resolved. To start that process it is essential that leaders on all sides start making their populations aware of the Madrid principles and encourage confidence building measures between their societies.

Q: Can the war be resumed this year?

A: War can erupt at any time as long as the conflict is unresolved and the two armies face each other in the trenches. The August war in Georgia has demonstrated how fragile the status quo is in the region. But it also had a deterring effect in a sense that it showed what catastrophic consequences the resumption of hostilities may have. This puts a special responsibility on the shoulders of the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders not to allow a similar scenario in Nagorno-Karabakh, which represents an even bigger security challenge for regional and European security than the one posed by August 2008 war in Georgia. The leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia should benefit from increased attention of the international community to the South Caucasus and use its assistance to achieve a peaceful solution.

Q: What principles of the draft framework agreement on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict remain uncoordinated?

A: The Minsk Group proposals, officially presented to the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan at the Madrid summit of the OSCE in November 2007 constitute the basis of present-day negotiations. These proposals, also known as “basic principles”, are an outcome of series of meetings between Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers since 2004 initiated in Prague, and thus dubbed the “Prague process”. The proposals are generally known, and have been previously elaborated in Crisis Group’s relevant reports “Plan for Peace” (2005) and “Risking War” (2007).

The proposals envisage determination of a final status of Nagorno-Karabakh by a popular vote in the last stage of the peace process, after all other confidence measures, including renunciation of the use of force, gradual withdrawal of the Armenian forces from the occupied territories, return of displaced population to their homes and re-opening of trade and communications, have been put in place.

However, the parties have significant differences on the issue of return of Kelbajar and Lachin districts, the modalities of the vote which would determine Nagorno-Karabakh’s ultimate status, and the issue of return of displaced Azeris to Nagorno-Karabakh before such a vote takes place. The Minsk Group currently works with parties to bridge the remaining differences so as to enable Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders sign up to the “basic principles”.

Crisis Group believes the ongoing negotiations based on Madrid proposals constitute the best framework for peaceful resolution of the conflict. In Azerbaijan there are widespread misperceptions and cliche-type thinking about these proposals, as if they constitute a hidden plot to legitimize Nagorno-Karabakh’s secession from Azerbaijan. Analogical fears exist in Armenia too. It is crucial that the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia inform and consult with their societies on the substance of the Minsk Group’s proposals. Greater public awareness and civic discussions within Azerbaijan and with Armenian counterparts is very important for achieving a progress in the peace process.

Q: Media outlets have reported Russia has transferred 800-million-dollar worth weapons to Armenia. Does this undermine the peace process?

A: I have read about this in the Azerbaijani media and at this stage it is hard for me to judge on the issue. The Russian side denies the report and we do not have an independent verification of the claim. However, if true, this fact certainly undermines Russian position as a Minsk Group co-chair and impartial mediator in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The arms transfer also contravenes the UN Security Council Resolution 853 (1993) urging the states to “refrain from supply of any weapons and munitions which might lead to an intensification of the conflict or the continued occupation of territory”.

We in Crisis Group believe any supply of offensive weapons to either Armenia or Azerbaijan as long as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is unresolved serves only to undermine the peace process, brings further militarization and diverts scarce resources away from public needs.